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Super Decisions 決策分析軟體


Super Decisions 軟體用於決策具有依賴性和反饋。它實現了層次分析法 AHP,以及網絡分析法 ANP。基本上兩者都使用通過對元素對判斷。 AHP 中的決定元件準則來選擇的替代方案的分層決策結構,而在 ANP 的決定元件分組在集群,其中一個包含的替代品,即其他含有的標準或利益相關者或其他決定因素。在ANP還沒有一個具體的目標元素,而優先級在影響的相對確定的框架和方案的優先次序被隱理解為相對於任何網絡大概是:決策的關注。 ​

The Super Decisions software is used for decision-making with dependence and feedback. It implements the Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP, and the Analytic Network Process, ANP. Both use the same fundamental prioritization process based on deriving priorities by making judgments on pairs of elements, or obtaining priorities by normalizing direct measurements. In the AHP the decision elements are arranged in a hierarchic decision structure from the goal to the criteria to the alternatives of choice, while in the ANP the decision elements are grouped in clusters, one of which contains the alternatives, which the others contain the criteria, or stakeholders or other decision elements. In the ANP there is not a specific goal element, rather the priorities are determined in a relative framework of influences and the prioritization of the alternatives is implicitly understood to be with respect to whatever the network is about: the decision concern. The clusters are arranged into a network with links among the elements, or sometimes into multiple tiers of elements such as when a problem is decomposed into Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks. Most decision-making methods including the AHP assume independence: between the criteria and the alternatives, or among the criteria or among the alternatives. The ANP is not limited by such assumptions. It allows for all possible and potential dependencies.

The ANP does not limit human understanding and experience to force decision-making into a highly technical model that is unnatural and contrived. It is in essence a formalization of how people usually think, and it helps the decision-maker keep track of the process as the complexity of the problem and the diversity of its factors increase. The best testimony of the power and success of the ANP are those applications that have been done that derived priorities that corresponded with known answers in the real world or that have predicted outcomes. From that perspective it is a reliable and objective approach for making decisions based on priorities and importance with which one has had experience. It is rather different than making guesses about the probabilities of occurrence as some decision-making methods would have you do.